Japanese swords are also affected by economic conditions.
During economic booms, prices naturally rise.
As a result, they become speculative investments, and many people have profited handsomely. That said, there may be even more who have suffered losses.
Incidentally, every sword shop has relics of past economic booms.
Swords that failed to sell are left sitting on the shelves. Sometimes, small-time investors hoping to find the next masterpiece buy them unwittingly and end up getting burned…
However, treating Japanese swords as speculative investments no longer yields profits.
Prices have been falling year after year since the economic boom. In my personal opinion, prices in Japan bottomed out around 2011. Just when it seemed they might start rising slightly, they’ve essentially remained flat.]
Comparing prices from the early 2000s to today—and this is purely a gut feeling—Tokubetsuhozon swords are now about 30% to 40% cheaper than they used to be.
On the other hand, Tokubetsujyuyo swords are in a league of their own; while there are few examples, I get the impression their prices have actually risen.
If you’re thinking of buying a Japanese sword, though, now is actually the perfect time…

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